We have an instinctual desire to remain consistent with our past actions and beliefs. There’s a social benefit to it: we value consistency and conviction, even if it’s wrong, because it reduces uncertainty toward one’s future actions and beliefs. This creates trust.
Yet this bias toward consistency and commitment can lead us to behave in irrational ways. With a desire to remain consistent and appear and feel like we’re right, we rarely seek disconfirming evidence of what we believe. To justify poor decisions and maintain a positive self-image, we may develop supporting arguments, despite knowing we are in the wrong.
These tendencies are exacerbated when the behaviour occurs publicly.
Think of a politician: what is (y)our reaction when he changes his mind on a topic halfway through his campaign or term?
Even if he does so for good reasons – new evidence supporting the opposite viewpoint, for example – we’ll deem him or her as unreliable, unstable or two-faced. To maintain public support and a positive self-image, he’s incentivized to stick with his earlier – now faulty – viewpoint or plan.
While rationally we should celebrate and encourage people, including ourselves, to change viewpoints and make decisions regardless of the past, in practice we prefer people to stick to – or even double down on – earlier commitments.
Imagine a bridge-building project: once started, who would stop it? Even if it far exceeds the original budget or timeline, we’d rather double down than terminate it and be left with an unfinished bridge. We would have “wasted time and money,” after all.
This sounds fair until you realize that any new investments – in money, labour, time – going to this bridge-building project could have been used elsewhere. By choosing to double down on this prior investment, we are forgoing investments in new or alternative options.
When we have to decide to continue or not, sunk costs will likely override our logic and we end up escalating our commitment. The more we have invested – time, effort, or pain – the harder it becomes to change our minds.
Commitment and consistency bias examples
Students
When we identify a student as smart, we view his work more positively and give him more opportunities…at the expense of students we view more negatively.
College
We’re unlikely to change majors in college, especially if we’re a junior or senior. We wouldn’t want our past effort to have been “for nothing” or to upset our parents (and their images of us).
Restaurant
When we order too much food at a restaurant, we’ll likely overeat because “we’ve already paid for it and might as well get our money’s worth” despite enjoying the food less and feeling worse afterwards.
Gambling
If we lose at roulette, poker or blackjack, we’ll likely increase our bet to win our money back. If we continue to lose we may bet more than we originally wanted because we want to avoid complete loss. The more we decide against reason, the more consistency bias works against us and we’ll continue to bet. The same applies to investments and our tendency to “throw good money after bad.”
Strong viewpoints
The more we commit to a certain diet or political viewpoint, the more we cherry-pick supporting information – instead of disconfirming evidence – to reinforce our self-image. We don’t want to be proven wrong, change our minds and be kicked out of the group or be considered a traitor.
Business
A business does better if it remains consistent with its brand and reputation. Changing one’s brand is difficult as it’s inconsistent with the customers’ perception and there’s a risk of alienating them. Brand and reputation can work for (Nike, Apple) and against companies (Big Pharma, Big Agriculture).
How to make commitment and consistency bias work for you
You can, however, use commitment bias (also known as escalation of commitment) to help you make a change in your life, such as with the formation of new habits or New Year’s resolutions.
Some examples:
- A public commitment makes you more likely to stick to a new goal or identity.
- Join a group or community for whom your desired behaviour or belief is the norm.
- Taking on the new challenge with someone else. The closer your relationship, the stronger the effect.
- A (financial) bet with someone, especially if money is paid up-front, will be viewed as a sunk cost you don’t want to lose.
- Hiring a coach or trainer. He not only simplifies the plan and helps you stay accountable, but the commitment – financial and personal – will also be viewed as a sunk cost.
- Writing down your goal or desired change and adding your signature at the bottom is an easy way to use commitment bias. Add your full name, date and location for added effect.
How to use commitment and consistency bias with others
How you can use commitment bias with others:
Sales
Control the deal by having customers make tiny commitments. Commitment and consistency biases are what sales funnels are built on: a slippery slope that leads to a full commitment. The same applies to individual sales calls or letters. The more you can make the customer commit (to continue reading or talking), the more likely the sale. Hypothetical questions to disarm objections, such as “Would you buy this now if the price is right?” are especially powerful.
Compliance
For any desirable behaviour you want, you can sketch the situation, present the behaviour as a question and receive a commitment to comply beforehand. This increases the likelihood of that behaviour.
Example: “If you were the only person who believed in my client’s innocence, could you withstand the pressure of the rest of the jury to change your mind?” It’s unlikely that any self-respecting prospective juror would answer negatively. And, now that the juror has made the implicit promise, it is unlikely that once selected he will give in to the pressure exerted by the rest of the jury.
Foot-in-the-door
If an initial request seems too big, make a request so small that the other person agrees. Once agreed, it makes the next commitment more likely.
This can be used in 2 ways:
- To ask for a bigger commitment later. Getting people to sign a petition a few weeks before fundraising, increases the percentage of people who donate and the amount each donates.
- Change someone’s self-identity. The Chinese used this during the Korean War to have their American captives inform on one another. They started with small requests the captives could agree with – “The United States is not perfect” – and slowly increased the heaviness of the requests, such as asking them to write an essay on the US’ imperfections. They slowly changed their self-image this way…to the point where they could exploit it.
Of course not everyone complies but the effect is strong enough to hold for a good number of buyers, students or anyone else whose rate of compliance we may want to raise.
How can you avoid escalation of commitment bias
Avoiding the negative consequences of consistency and commitment bias is most easily done before you make the initial decision or commitment.
Some helpful approaches:
- Be careful agreeing with even the smallest request. It can make us comply with larger requests later on and more willing to do even remotely related favours.
- “Don’t make any promises that you can’t keep.” This rule keeps society together by ensuring that our commitments for the most part are real and reliable. It forces you to look ahead and rationalize your present decision.
- Listen to your stomach. Robert Cialdini suggests in Influence that the stomach often reacts when we’re being asked to do or commit to something we don’t want to.
- Set a rule. Be clear on what you commit to and how far your commitment reaches. Leave nothing open to interpretation. It helps to get an impartial third-party involved.
To overcome consistency and commitment bias after you’ve made an initial decision, these approaches can be helpful:
- Thought experiments. “Knowing what I know, if I could go back in time, would I make the same commitment?” Ask it frequently enough and the answer might surprise you.
- Argue the other side. This forces you to seek out disconfirming evidence and remain flexible. “I never allow myself to hold an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.” – Charlie Munger
Avoiding consistency and commitment bias isn’t easy. It goes against our natural drive and it can make us worry that others will think poorly of us.
Being consistent not only helps us preserve our public image, but it’s also easier and leads to a more predictable and consistent life. Staying consistent with our habits and earlier decisions reduces our need to think and allows us to live on “auto-pilot.”
The key is to be aware of consistency and commitment bias and know how it can work against you and for you. Remember it’s always a better idea to make a decision based on logic and reason than it is to do so just because it’s consistent with your past decisions, beliefs or behaviour.
And if you’re afraid of public backlash: let “being flexible” and “makes rational decisions” become the identity others associate with you.